Foresight Doctoral Dissertations - Global List
Below is our emerging list of all ongoing and completed doctoral dissertations in primary foresight that we have been able to gather information on to date. Entries are listed alpha by foresight researchers last name, and grouped per decade by actual or estimated publication date. Please keep abstract dissertation to a maximum of eight lines, thank you.
If you have undertaken foresight research, or are doing so currently, you may contact Barbara Bok who is our Director of Foresight PhD Research, or Karen Arvidsson, Director Academic Programs, so your work can be listed and shared. Alternatively you can ask for access to the wiki by emailing the wiki moderators, susanchesleyfant{at}gmail{dot}com or johnsmart{at}accelerating{dot}org, and add the details in the format below.
2010-2019:
Abstract: This project will contribute to international strategy and decision-making research by developing a scenario-based framework for forward-looking, adaptive strategic decision-making under high uncertainty. Previous research in decision-making models often fails to account for changes in driving trends and key uncertainties that traverse multiple levels – and their potential interactions. This project will improve our scientific understanding of the dynamics behind complex strategic investment decisions under high uncertainty. It will combine theories from finance, organizational behavior, leadership, economics and strategy. Its multi-disciplinary nature will further our knowledge of how integration of diverse factors across multiple levels can help develop new theories and practices in relation to strategic decision-making in face of highly uncertain and changing environments.
Duration: August 2011 - July 2014
Funding: Novozymes; Danish Ministry of Research, Technology and Development
IEV PhD Theses & Master Series Vol 7.
Title: The Impact of Climate Change on Winter Tourism in the Austrian Alps, an estimate of the expected development for the period 2041-2050.
Abstract: So far there are few publications that deal explicitly with the spatial and regional impacts of climate change on the classic winter tourism in Austria. This gap is to close the present work. The estimation is done under the assumption of ceteris paribus conditions and using a spatial error model. Yet, the number of frost days, the number of beds and the amount of snow can be used as independent, explanatory variables and the winter nights as the dependent variable. The climate-related data derived from climate simulations of the Austrian Institute of Technology (reclip: more project). The necessary spatial weight matrix in the present work is based on the k-nearest-neighbor approach and is calculated using a local-distance matrix. The basic data for quantifying the relationships describing the years 1981 to 1990. Based on the climate scenario results for the years 2041-2050 was - finally calculated the development potential winter overnight stays - under ceteris paribus conditions. The results show that have concerns in particular the winter sports community between 800m and 1500m above sea level, the largest declines. Depending on the amount of the decrease is between 8.5% and 68.1% over the period 1981-1990. Duration:
Funding:
Abstract: International relations scholars increasingly use ‘strategic culture’ as a construct to explain how political leaders and security communities make strategic decisions and preferences. However, there are multiple definitions and the term is used inconsistently from several different stances. This project examines why this confusion exists and how strategic culture is used in the subfield of counterterrorism studies to understand terrorist individuals and organisations, and reflexively, analysts and the policies that they develop. Two key confusions exist: (1) scholars use ‘strategic culture’ inconsistently, and (2) counterterrorism studies lacks coherence, rigour and accreditation mechanisms (Stampnitzky 2008). These concerns recapitulate a similar disciplinary debate during and after the Cold War about the status of strategic studies, and its coherence, growth and survival as a sub-field of international security (Bull 1968; Betts 1997; Buzan and Hansen 2009). Duration: 2010+ Funding:
Hines, Andy
Abstract: The difficulties in integrating foresight into organizations
suggest an opportunity for exploring a new organizational futurist role. Contributions
to knowledge include: (1) The development of the Integration framework maps the
process and roles involved in foresight integration (2) Making a case that the
organizational futurist adopts a social constructionist perspective to guide
the process of foresight integration (3) Making a case that the development of
the foresight field toward professionalization could be an important influence
for aiding the organizational futurist role (4) The development of an Outcomes
framework provides a useful mechanism for the organizational futurist to
stimulate a dialogue and discourse about successful outcomes for the
integration of foresight (5) Making a case that the organizational futurist
adopts a discursive approach to institutionalization that builds from the
periphery to the core of the organization. Duration: October 2010-December 2012 Funding:
Zwaga, Hans
Title: Generic Futurists' Competency Profile, a Quintuple Helix Approach (working title) (web link: under construction). The thesis is an article thesis in contrast to a monographic thesis Abstract: The thesis investigates the possibility to construct a generic competency profile or key competency profile for Futures Studies. As the construction of such a profile is depended on the dialogue and agreement of several key stakeholder groups a multiple stakeholder approach will be developed. Furthermore, in "a flattening world" the demand for competent futurists is growing worldwide. To educate flexible, mobile and multi-employable futurists a common understanding and agreement on a generic profile have to be reached. Such an agreement should be irrespective function, position and or even part of the world. Duration: (start: 01.09.2012, end, estimated: 20.12.2015)
Saritas, Ozcan (ozcan.saritas@mbs.ac.uk)
Title: Systems Thinking in Foresight Abstract: Entitled as the thesis analysed current institutional Foresight practice, detected its shortcomings with a systemic view proposed the “Systemic Foresight Methodology - SFM”. Systemic Foresight has been tested in two university departments with the action research methodology. The SFM has also been applied at various Regional Foresight exercises in Europe on the IT, Logistics and Automotive sectors. Duration: 2002 - 2006 Funding:
Abstract: Since the middle of the twentieth century, methods have been developed to help business and governmental organizations anticipate possible futures. Although the methods of the discipline of Foresight and Futures Studies are recognized and accepted around the world, the concepts and practice have not been applied to individual lives in any appreciable numbers. The complexity of the futuring process appears to be the primary barrier to applying futures method to individual lives. This research seeks first to reduce the complexity barrier by identifying foreknowns in human life, the elements of life that can be reasonably anticipated. These foreknowns, when combined, form a framework of information from which an individual can explore and prepare for the future using recognized futures methods such as scenario development and strategic planning.
Title: (web link if available). Abstract: (eight line maximum). Duration: (start and end date, estimated) Funding: (sponsoring institutions)
Title: (web link if available). Abstract: (eight line maximum). Institution & Location: Duration: (start and end date, estimated) Funding: (sponsoring institutions)
Do you know other dissertations that should be on the lists above? Please let us know!
Help us add them here. Email the wiki moderators, susanchesleyfant{at}gmail{dot}com or johnsmart{at}accelerating{dot}org, with a brief paragraph on your background, and ask for editing access to this page. We are always looking for more foresight students, professionals, grads, and advocates to post here, to work with, and to help the global foresight community. |
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